Multiregional population projection models with uncertainty

James Raymer, University of Southampton
Andrei Rogers, University of Colorado at Boulder
Guy J. Abel, University of Southampton

Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper, we compare the forecasts and prediction intervals from four simple regional projection models: a total growth rate model, a component model with net migration, a component model with in-migration and out-migration rates, and a multiregional model with destination-specific out-migration rates. Vector autoregressive models are used to forecast future rates of growth, birth, death, net migration, in-migration and out-migration, and destination-specific out-migration for the North, Midlands and South regions in England. The base data represent a time series of annual data provided by the Office for National Statistics from 1976 to 2008. We show how both the forecasted populations and the uncertainty surrounding them differ according to the projection model used. The paper ends end with a discussion of our results and possible directions for future research.

Presented in Session 40: Modelling demographic change in the context of uncertainty