(Withdrawn) The multilevel analysis on the determinants of fertility desire in China

Jing Xu, Renmin University of China

This research describes the current fertility desire of women at childbearing age in the context of low fertility in China since 1990’s. On the basis of database combined National Social Conditions and Public Opinion Polls on Fertility Desire in 2007 with matched socioeconomic indicators of counties, urban areas, county-level cities and Policy Fertility Rate in different cities of China, this research attempts to make an empirical analysis on the determinants of "Three Dimensional Characteristics of Fertility Desire" of women of childbearing age used Multilevel Generalized Poisson Regression, Multilevel Multinomial Logit Regression and Multilevel Linear Regression for decomposing the multi-dimensional factors from the micro and macro levels, which are desired number of children, desired childbearing gender, and desired timing of childbearing including ideal age at first childbearing and ideal interval of childbearing between 1 parity and 2 parity. This research aims to explore and quantify the effect of different factors affecting fertility desire and compare the effect of socioeconomic factors and family planning policy.

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Presented in Poster Session 1

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