Integrated modelling of European migration

Arkadiusz Wisniowski, University of Southampton
Jonathan J. Forster, University of Southampton
James Raymer, University of Southampton
Peter W.F. Smith, University of Southampton
Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton
Guy J. Abel, University of Southampton

In order to fully understand the causes and consequences of international population movements in Europe, researchers and policy makers need to overcome the limitations of the various data sources, including inconsistencies in availability, definitions and quality. In this presentation, we propose a Bayesian model for harmonising and correcting the inadequacies in the available data and for estimating the completely missing flows. The methodology is integrated and capable of providing a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters. Having such a data base allows us to better understand the underlying mechanisms and reasons for recent migration trends.

Presented in Session 40: Modelling demographic change in the context of uncertainty