Demographic and migratory flows affecting European regions and cities: what does the future hold?

Frank Heins, IRPPS.CNR, Rome
Philip H. Rees, University of Leeds

On behalf of the DEMIFER Transnational Project Group: Joop De Beer (NIDI), Nicole Van der Gaag (NIDI), Rob Van der Erf (NIDI), Ramon Bauer (UNIVIE), Heinz Fassmann (UNIVIE), Dorota Kupiszewska (IOM/CEFMR), Marek Kupiszewski (IOM/CEFMR), Phil Rees (University of Leeds), Peter Boden (University of Leeds), Adam Dennett (University of Leeds), John Stillwell (University of Leeds), Andries De Jong (NEAA), Mark Ter Veer (NEAA), Jonathan Metzger (Nordregio), Johanna Roto (Nordregio), Lisa Van Well (Nordregio), Frank Heins (CNR), Corrado Bonifazi (CNR), Giuseppe Gesano (CNR) The DEMIFER applied research project under the EU’s ESPON 2013 programme has assessed present and future changes in European regional population dynamics, labour forces and ageing. The TPG has explored impacts on regional competitiveness and social cohesion, using reference and policy scenarios for 287 NUTS2 regions together with 12 case studies. Under a status quo regime of recent demographic rates and flows, Europe’s population will decline between 2005 and 2050 by 10% with one third of regions experiencing more than 20% decline. Under policy scenarios that succeed in meeting current economic, social and environmental challenges, Europe’s population may increase by 20%. Under scenarios with policies that fail to meet the challenges, Europe’s population will be stationary. Universal under all scenarios will be population ageing, labour force shrinkage and huge differences in growth/decline experience between the regions of central and eastern Europe and some regions of northern, western and southern Europe. Migration flows will benefit the growing dynamic regions which will maintain their labour forces while declining regions might see a spiral of out-migration and higher population ageing. Immigration into Europe from outside will continue to be important but at different levels depending on scenario with implications for cohesion.