(Withdrawn) Fertility decision-making in the states of crisis and societal instability

Yuri Frantsuz, University of Minnesota

Fertility decision-making in the states of economic and social crisis and instability is yet to be theoretically explained. Classic microeonomic theory explains short-term fluctuations in fertility but fails to account for all institutional variations. Uncertainty reduction theory looks like a good tool for explaining fertility dynamics in the above mentioned societal states. However, it doesn't differentiate between different types of crisis and instability, both in scope and intensity. However, there is a lot of empirical evidence showing various directions of fertility dynamics in response to the crises and instabilities of different types. That requires further study of further specification of how different societal instabilities impact fertility decision-making. In order to advance theoretical understanding of the problem an empirical study of instability and crisis impact was undertaken, the one focused on the demographic behavior in the USSR/Russia at the period from 1952 to nowadays. The study have employed political and social theories that allow for distinguishing crises and instabilities of different types. Using APC model, period effects that are marked with different types and scale of instability were singled out and compared between each other as well as with the effects of stable periods.

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Presented in Poster Session 1