An expert knowledge based framework for probabilistic national population forecasts: the example of Egypt

Huda Alkitkat, Egyptian Cabinet Information and Decision Support Centre (IDSC)

During the last decades many studies produced population projections for Egypt using three assumptions of variants (low, medium and high). This approach has many problems: first, most of the decision makers when they find three or five alternatives almost automatically choose the middle one. Second, these projections are deterministic projections which do not give an appropriate indication of the uncertainty. This paper has proposed, for the first time, a framework for the probabilistic population forecasts for Egypt. depending mainly on the Expert’s knowledge and arguments Which can help to illustrate the uncertainties associated with future demographic trends and also shed the light on how will be the demographic situation in Egypt during the coming 20 years.