Labor migration in the near-border region of Russia: analysis and forecasting

Svetlana Mishchuk, Russian Academy of Sciences
Mikhail Khavinson, Russian Academy of Sciences

Socio-economic development of a territory is closely connected with availability of labor forces. In case of their deficiency a phenomenon of labor migration appears – population flow with the aim of getting employed. The distinctive importance of labor migration is felt at Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) of the Russian Federation (the RF) during realizing of capital-intensive projects for developing of mineral deposits. Near-border position of southern Far East regions of the RF causes dynamical development of the international labor migration. The Jewish Autonomous region (the JAR), a sub-federal unit of FEFD, is considered as an example of a near-border territory with intensive labor migration. The surface of the JAR can be compared with a small European country (36.300 sq. km are considered). Proceeding from the designated feature of migratory processes in the JAR, we raised an issue about maximum permissible number of foreign labor on its territory. The thresholds of foreign workers share in a number of the employed, economically active people and in the total number of population in the JAR were calculated within the context of this research. According to the received forecast, it is unsafe for the JAR to employ the big number of citizens from the People’s Republic of China (more than 8000-9000 people). An average variant of the forecast is considered to be admissible within 10 years (2000-8000 people) and the preferable variant is the strict restriction of the Chinese labor number (up to 2000 people). The results of this research can be used for the analysis and forecast of labor migration dynamics and its influence on socio-economic development of any territory subject to significant migratory interactions. The research is executed under grant support of the President of the Russian Federation for young scientists МК-72.2009.6.