Weakening marital ties in Poland

Marta Styrc, Warsaw School of Economics

This paper examines the correlates of first marriages disruption in Poland on the data coming for the retrospective survey ‘Employment, Family and Education Survey” (EFES) of 2006. The EFES data cover the period since middle 1980s but relevant analyses are possible since 1990s. The event history model formulated includes several covariates which refer to: a period, a type of union (three binary variables showing whether marriage has been preceded by cohabitation or premarital birth, or whether it was a shot-gun marriage), a place of residence at age of 15, education attainment (time-varying) and a variable describing parity and pregnancy status combined with the age of the youngest child. Estimates reveal dependencies similar to those found for other countries about impacts of traditionalism of the upbringing environment, meaning of a shot-gun marriage and a premarital child, importance of children and pregnancy, a stronger impact of younger children. Diverging results concern an influence of premarital cohabitation which does not increase the risk of marriage dissolution. Compared to previous studies on Poland by Härkönen and Dronkers (2006) the change of educational gradient is noticed – from positive to negative. Aside from several expected correlations the model reveals that marriage is still an important institution in Poland even a couple decides for premarital cohabitation. However, after 2000 the readiness to terminate an unsatisfactory marriage has increased what can be interpreted as being in line with the second demographic transition concept.