The implications of future demographic change on the incidence of diseases/disorders in the United States of America (USA)

Nazrul Hoque, University of Texas at San Antonio

In this paper we examine the implications of future demographic change on incidence of diseases and disorders in the United States. We have examined changes in key demographic parameters such as, population size, distribution, and composition, on the incidence of diseases/disorders by type within a single state. Our intent is to examine how such changes will likely affect the magnitude, type, and location of demand for health services in the United States in the future. At present, the population of the United States is increasing at a rate of less than one percent per year, compared to an annual rate of nearly 2 percent in the 1950s, and the total population is expected to increase from 281.4 million in 2000 to 458.2 million in 2050. The median age of the population of the United States was 30 in 1980, increased to 36 in 2000 and may be 40 by the end of the first quarter of the 21st century. The population in such key health-care groups as those persons 65 years of age or older may increase from 11 percent in 2000 to 20 percent by 2050. Of the 176.8 million persons projected to be added to the U.S. population between 2000 and 2050, more than half (92.6 million) are projected to be Hispanic. Seventy-two percent of the net growth in the U.S. population between1990-2000 was due to minority population, and the minority population may become majority by 2040. This paper will provide an example of how these future demographic changes are likely to impact on diseases/disorders in U.S. We will also use decomposition techniques to examine the relative impact of population growth, aging, and changes in race/ethnicity composition of the population on diseases/disorders in the United States, an important input for the formulation of nationwide health policies.