Subregional fertility differentials in western European countries

Alessandra Carioli, University of Groningen

The present work presents a project that aims at investigating fertility on a sub-regional basis to determine the existence of possible convergence paths both at country and at European level. In particular I want to investigate fertility trends among Western European countries to better understand when regional differences in fertility behavior started to arise, how they developed across time and which kind of developments for the future we might expect. The framework considered in this project is the Second Demographic Transition, SDT, which allows for a broader understanding of the dynamics involved in the expansion of new values and attitudes towards childbearing and fertility behavior. The SDT diffusion is not homogeneous within countries; indeed, it spread at different speed, sometimes involving only specific features of fertility behavior, Van de Kaa (1987). The first step of the project focuses on analyzing country specific fertility trends at sub-regional level over time, to understand the existence of possible convergence paths in fertility behavior and the role played by net migration in fertility differentials. A second step would involve cross country comparison, considering country specific features such as family policies.