An around-the-world decline in divorce for the most educated?

Joshua R. Goldstein, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Hyunjoon Park, University of Pennsylvania
Brienna Perelli-Harris, University of Southampton

In the United States, Europe, and East Asia, we find signs that divorce is declining among the most educated, with continued increases, or slower declines among those with less education. A pessimistic interpretation of this trend is that it will increase social and economic inequality of children's life chances. A more optimistic interpretation is that perhaps the most educated are the forerunners of a more general decline in divorce. Our analysis will enable us to be more certain of international trends and their potential consequences. In particular, we plan to look at dissolution risks of unions (both married and cohabiting) with children, in order to take account of changing union formation patterns and to focus on families with children.