Making the unknown known: sub-regional and provincial population projections for Turkey

Mehmet Dogu Karakaya, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat)
Ahmet Sinan Turkyilmaz, Hacettepe University

Projection is an estimation process about the future that is due to some various assumptions in view of the fact that conditions of the past time. TurkStat has used cohort-component method for population projections, since 1994. These projections are assumed for Turkey total as a whole, and don’t include regional or provincial estimations. The scope of this study is to make new provincial and regional urban/rural population projections for the centenary of the Republic of Turkey, based on ABPRS 2008 database, with contributions of Turkey Demographic and Health surveys (TDHS-1993, TDHS-1998, TDHS-2003, TDHS-2008), United Nations World Population Prospects, 1990 and 2000 General Population Censuses. This is the first trial-study for provincial based cohort-component population projection with regional and provincial assumptions. This study is also the first one of ABPRS based projections, except the national estimation based projections of TurkStat. According to the results of the study, different demographic patterns will be followed in sub-regions of Turkey. Population ageing will be occurred in western localities. Percentage of urban population will usually rise in some provinces and regions although the decreasing population sizes due to negative net migration or low fertility levels. Turkey’s total population will reach a value between approximately 81-83 million until 2023 with decelerating growth rate. It is seen that the population will become dense in cities and high population areas. When the obtained findings in regional and provincial levels are considered, deviation from final phase of demographic transition appears when mainly going to eastern regions from western regions. There are deep differences between the demographic structures of the regions in Turkey, from the western to eastern ones. Western regions are in an advanced level than the average in Turkey; they nearly reach to the end point of the demographic transition process or have reached.