Comparative analysis of the infuence of fertility and mortality changes on population ageing in chosen  European countries

Marta Szklarska, Cracow University of Economics
Paweł Najman, Cracow University of Economics

The population ageing is a common feature of changes of demographic structures in European countries. They differ, however, in the context of the stage of this process. The aim of our study is to compare the impact of changes in fertility and in mortality on population ageing in Western and Central Eastern European countries. The following hypothesis are verified. (1) The fertility decline is a main factor influencing the population ageing in the countries in transition, and the increase of the life expectancy of the elderly has a weaker influence in this case. (2) In Western European countries, both: fertility decline and the increase of the life expectancy of the elderly significantly determine the ageing of the population. To verify these assumptions two types of scenarios are prepared. The first one determine the structure of the populations, when a fixed level of fertility is assigned to hypothetical changes in mortality. The second type is to determine these structures, with variable fertility assigned to constant mortality level. To determine the hypothetical changes in fertility the Schmertmann and Hadwiger models of age – specific fertility rate distributions are applied. Hypothetical changes in mortality are defined using appropriate survival models. To investigate the long – term consequences of these processes – in the context of population aging – the stable population models are constructed. The source of the data is The Word Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database.

Presented in Poster Session 1

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