Internal migration and transition to second child: the case of Turkey

Mehmet Ali Eryurt, Hacettepe University
Ismet Koc, Hacettepe University

Turkey has experienced a serious fertility decline starting from 1950’s. During this process the TFR, declined from the numbers with 6 or 7 to the replacement level. Similar to the changes in fertility, starting from 1950s internal migration gathered speed and became one the most important factor influencing population dynamics of Turkey. Changes in fertility and migration were mutually reinforcing processes. According to the result of last two demographic surveys, the TFR is slightly above replacement level. In urban areas and in three of five regions the TFR is even below replacement level. These fertility rates indicate a turning point for Turkey and make a detailed analysis of the transition to second birth meaningful. Therefore in this study it is aimed to analyze the main determinants of the transition to second birth focusing on internal migration. The data source of the study comes from 2003 and 2008 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey. Both surveys include a wide range of retrospective questions on birth histories. TDHS-2003 includes a lot of questions on migration status. Although these information were not collected with the individual life histories, it is possible to relate the timing of migration status and timing of fertility with some creative assumptions. On the other hand, TDHS-2008 collected information on marriage, migration and employment with the individual life histories, first time in Turkey. In this aspect TDHS-2008 data provides new opportunities to examine the relationship of fertility and migration. A piecewise constant intensity regression model is estimated to measure the impact of internal migration and other covariates. The study intends to test four main hypothesis explaining the impact of migration on fertility (socialization, adaption, selectivity, disruption). Using TDHS-2003 data we found evidence for selectivity and adaptation hypothesis regarding the second birth. The same procedure will be repeated using TDHS-2008 data.