Model to forecast the re-immigration of Swedish-born

Christian Skarman, Statistics Sweden

The purpose of the study is to model the re-immigration of Swedish born persons. To estimate re-immigration of Swedish-born, a model has been produced where information on immigration and emigration since 1851 has been the basis for building up a population of "Swedish-born living abroad". For every year, Swedish-born emigrants have been added, re-immigrants have been subtracted, and the population of Swedish-born living abroad has been reduced based on the same death risks that apply to Swedish-born people living in Sweden. An estimation of immigration based only on emigration rates does not follow the observed development particularly well. However, a linear regression where immigration created by re-immigration rates is combined with information on emigration three years earlier gives quite good fit. Results show that re-immigration of Swedish-born is expected to increase in the future. At the beginning of the forecast period, it is assumed that the number of Swedish-born abroad increases rather sharply, and then stabilises at a level just under 400 000 at the end of the forecast period year 2060. During the forecast period, it is assumed that the yearly re-immigration increase from about 15 000 to just under 20 000 at the end of the forecast period.