(Withdrawn) Future mortality in European countries: based on coherent projections of both all-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality

Fanny Janssen, Population Research Centre, Groningen
Leo van Wissen, University of Groningen

In making national mortality projections, it is recommended to take into account the mortality experience of other countries. In this paper, we applied the Li-Lee methodology for coherent mortality projections to the majority of European countries. We extrapolated both past trends in all-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality. In addition, we conducted a sensitivity analysis related to the selection of the in- and out-of-group populations. The coherent projections led to a convergence of life expectancy levels between the different countries and the two sexes, which is a likely outcome. Life expectancy levels were higher as predicted for many individual European countries. The selection of in- and out-of-group populations strongly affected the outcomes for all-cause mortality, but is less important for the projection of non-smoking-related mortality. The Lee-Li methodology can therefore best be applied when non-linear effects, such as the effects of the smoking epidemic, are secluded from the past trends.