Demographic processes and economic crises: the Bulgarian case

Kaloyan Haralampiev, Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski"

In Bulgaria we have our absolute bottom of the number of births in the last three months of 1997, nine months after the biggest socio-economic crisis in the contemporary Bulgarian history. This fact provokes research question about the relationship between demographic processes and economic crises. However, more indicators of economic development are used – GDP, final consumption expenditure of households, individual final consumption expenditure of general government, numbers and hours worked of employed, employees and self-employed. The method for analysis of time series data is Bayesian spectrum analysis. It affords an opportunity to trace out the parallel dynamics of all variables and to find out the lags and the amplitude ratios. And this in its turn allows us to tell whether the number of births depends on the economic dynamics. As a result appears that it is rather likely that the number of births depends on numbers and hours worked of employed, employees and self-employed but it does not depend on the economic development.