Comparative study of fertility transition and population ageing in four selected countries in the MENA region

Soleiman Pakseresht, Bu Ali Sina University
Hatam Hosseini, Bu Ali Sina University

Fertility transition is now underway in many MENA region countries. Iran, Turkey, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates are pioneering in fertility transition in the region. Considering differences in socio-economic and ethnic - cultural characteristics of these countries, the comparative study of fertility transition and inevitable consequences of experiencing low fertility regime are more important. The main objective of this study is to clarify the consequences of low fertility in the context of fertility transition. Data used is mostly taken from the United Nations Population Division (2009). Results show differences in countries fertility experience during last 60 years. Finding also show that countries are different according to the timing of fertility transition, the pace of fertility decline during the transition, and experiencing replacement or below-replacement level fertility is not coinciding to the timing of fertility transition. According to the results, although the timing of transition from adolescence to adult age is different, but population ageing will be dominant phenomenon in the mid 21 century. Considering the time consuming process of policy making for older population and changing needs of older persons, adoption a comprehensive population policy in order to encounter consequences of low fertility and population ageing in the four selected countries is necessary.